A rare bad beat and great interest in WR betting

The Kansas City-Denver Broncos Chiefs introduced the most popular player accessory to bettors on Sunday, but it wasn’t Patrick Mahomes Where Russell Wilson.

Instead, more money was bet on the over/under of the Broncos’ No. 3 receiver Kendall Hinton than was wagered on any other player accessory offered by Caesars Sportsbook.

Hinton’s accessory opened for 38.5 yards. The first five bets were on the underside, dropping the number to 37.5. The money flowed over the top from there. Bets over Hinton’s receiver yards have attracted more than twice as many bets as any other player prop. Hinton finished with 38 receiving yards. The Chiefs-Broncos game also featured a bad beat the likes of which we’ve only seen seven times in the past 20 seasons.

The Chiefs, who were favorites by 9 points, took a 27-0 lead but had to hold on in a 34-28 victory. According to ESPN Stats and Information research, teams that have led by 27 points have gone 703-7-2 ATS over the past 20 seasons.

It was hard to swallow for the betting public, who sided strongly with the favorite Chiefs. About 80% of the money bet on the game’s point spread at DraftKings was on Kansas City. It’s another brutal beating for bettors during what is proving to be an extremely lucrative season for sports betting.

NFL notables

• The Minnesota Vikings started the week as small favorites against the Detroit Lions. But influential money came to Detroit early in the week, turning the Lions from home underdogs to favorites.

“Savvy bettors don’t think the Vikings are as good as their record,” said Adam Pullen, assistant trading manager for Caesars Sportsbook.

The Lions delivered for the sharp with a 34-23 victory over the Vikings, who are 10-3 but also have a negative 1-point differential.

The Lions victory produced the biggest win of the day for Caesars Sportsbook, as late money from the Vikings betting public overwhelmed early action on Detroit from sharp bettors.

• The Philadelphia Eagles covering as 10.5-point favorites in a 48-22 rout of the New York Giants, along with upset wins by underdogs Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars, produced some of the other biggest wins for sports betting.

Top games for the betting public included the Cincinnati Bengals covering a 23-10 victory over the Cleveland Browns and the San Francisco 49ers covering the spread in a 35-7 rout of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

• QB of the Eagles Jalen hurts became the betting favorite to win the NFL Regular Season MVP on Sunday, passing Patrick Mahomes at Caesars Sportsbook. Hurts is -110, followed by Mahomes at +200 and the Bengals QB Joe Terrier at +500.

• The Dallas Cowboys escaped what would have been one of the biggest upsets of the past 40 seasons with a 27-23 win over the Houston Texans. The Cowboys were favored by 17 points but needed 98 yards in the final minutes to survive the thwarted offer from the Texans.

In 1995, Washington upset Dallas as a 17.5-point underdog in the biggest upset of 40 seasons.

• Caesars Sportsbook reported nine NFL bets in six or more figures this week:
$275.00 on Giants +7.5 vs Eagles (Loss)
$275,000 on Dolphins -3 vs Chargers (loss)
$220,000 on Texans +17.5 vs. Cowboys (win)
$220,000 on under 52.5 Vikings-Lions (loss)
$150,000 on Vikings +3.5 (-150) vs. Lions (loss)
$115,000 on Chargers +3.5 (-115) against Dolphins (win)
$110,000 on Cowboys -16 vs. Texans (loss)
$110,000 on Bills -9 vs. Jets (loss)
$110,000 on Vikings-Lions under 52.5 (loss)

Pullen, who has been in the betting industry for more than 20 years, said he has seen more six-figure bets in recent years.

“They’re definitely more prevalent,” Pullen said of the six-figure bets.

College football notables

• Sixteen straight games between the Army and Navy had gone under, the longest straight streak since at least 2000. The teams averaged around 37 points per game during the streak, with games remaining under the total of 14.3 points. . Saturday’s game seemed destined to extend the streak, until overtime slipped into the mix.

This year’s total closed at 32 at Caesars Sportsbook, second-lowest for the season behind only Iowa-Minnesota (31.5). Army and Navy managed just one offensive touchdown in regulation, but a late Army field goal sent the game into overtime, tied at 10-10. Each team found the end zone in the first overtime, pushing the game over and ending the epic streak.

More money was wagered on the Army-Navy total than on the point spread of the game at Caesars Sportsbook, a rarity.

• USC Quarterback Caleb Williams started the season around 7-1 to win the Heisman Trophy. His odds fell to 14-1 after the Trojans lost to Utah in October, but became the overwhelming favorite to win the award during the season. It closed at -2,500 at Caesars Sportsbook.

• Notable movement of the boules line at Circa Sports: [Opening line in parenthesis]
Miami, Ohio vs. UAB (-9), -11.5
Fresno State (-1) -3 vs. Washington State
Middle Tennessee State vs. San Diego State (-5) -7
Oklahoma State vs. Wisconsin (PK) -3
North Carolina vs. Oregon (-14) -10
Mississippi State (-2, 47.5) vs. Illinois
Purdue vs. LSU (-9) -11
Utah -3 vs. Penn State (PK)

World Cup notables

• $13,000 to earn $52? It was worth it for a PointsBet punter, who placed a $13,000 bet on Argentina at (-25,000) as they trailed the Netherlands 2-0 in a quarter-final match final on Friday. The punter should endure an epic sweat, after the Netherlands rallied in the second half to force extra time. Argentina would win on penalties and the bettor took home a net $52.

• Brazil, consensus favorites to win the World Cup, were eliminated by Croatia in the quarter-finals. More money has been wagered on Brazil to win the tournament than any other team on several sportsbooks.

• US sportsbooks were unsure what to expect from betting interest on the first World Cup in the fall. Some were disappointed.

“Overall the timing of the World Cup really hurt us, maybe even more than I expected,” said SuperBook’s John Murray. “It really hurts to have these big games against college football and basketball. Give me a traditional summer World Cup from now on. It’s much better for business.”

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