What happens when there are no big theatrical releases and it’s the holiday season as we come out of the pandemic? Why, you get the second lowest box office weekend of the year at around $37.2M. We’ll see if Saturday night business is so bad that this weekend becomes the lowest of 2022, toppling that of Jan. 28-30, when all movies grossed $34.87 million, per Comscore.
This weekend’s best photo is, of course, Disney/Marvel’s fifth go-around Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, what we think we are doing $11M. Yesterday, with $2.8 million, Ryan Coogler’s film broke the four century mark with a continued accumulation of $401.55 millionwith a 5% advance on Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness more than 29 days.
Also, with Twentieth Century Studios/Disney Avatar: The Way of the Water poised to grab all the business next weekend with a potential $200 million domestic start, no one wants to waste marketing dollars playing ahead of this, especially when theaters don’t resume until after Christmas when it’s there are no distractions during the holidays and the children continue to break.
A Year Ago You’ll Remember Disney Made The Mistake Of Opening Steven Spielberg West Side Story the second weekend of December before Spider-Man: No Coming Home, and no one showed up, resulting in a 3-day box office take of $10.5 million. No studio was willing to risk a wide release this weekend after seeing how it turned out.
However, in the pre-pandemic era, family movies released before year-end titans did very well on the second weekend of December, i.e. Jumanji: the upper level, which opened at $59 million before Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker$177.3 million to start in December 2019 and 2018 Spider-Man: in the Spiderverse, which opened at $35.3 million ahead of Warner Bros/DC Aquaman. Strong family titles from the recent pre-Covid era have proven to break through. Currently next year, there are no major releases booked by the majors on December 1 or December 8. Next year’s end-of-year Christmas movie is Warner Bros/DC’s Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom.
This Weekend, On the Small Side: A Moderate Extension by Michael Showalter of Focus Features, Directed spoiler alert, based on the tome by Michael Ausiello, is looking to crack the top 10 with $700,000 after a $230,000 Friday at 783 theaters (+777). Good PostTrak gets 91% of those who show up, which is 58% male, 45% 18-34, 66% Caucasian, 15% Latino and Hispanic, 2% Black, and 17% Asian /other. During the second weekend of the photo, it seems to land at $803,000.
THE WHALE, Brendan Fraser, 2022. © A24 / Courtesy Everett Collection
Despite the lack of noise on the wide side, the A24s Brendan Fraser drama directed by Darren Aronofsky The whale heads for best theater average of 2022, toppling studio Everything everywhere all at once ($50,000 per venue) with $60,000Where $360,000 for three days in six theaters in NYC and LA. This gives some hope for high-profile dramas at the Oscars. Although only 67% on Rotten Tomatoes, Fraser was buzzed with having a lock on best actor after the picture’s fall film festival run. Big numbers, we mean, from Lincoln Square in New York, Angelika, the Alamo Drafthouse in Brooklyn, and Burbank, Grove, and Century City in Los Angeles.
EMPIRE OF LIGHT, Olivia Colman, 2022. © Searchlight Pictures/Courtesy Everett Collection
Projector of Empire of Light, directed by Sam Mendes and based on the life of the Oscar winner’s mother, was panned by critics at 47% Rotten, and isn’t putting up strong numbers from what I hear. Booked at 110 sites, the film faltered $67,000 yesterday for what looks like a $177,600 opening.
Top 5 of the weekend:
1.) wakanda forever Dis 3,725 (-130) theaters, Fri $2.8M (-37%), 3 days $11M (-37%), Together $409.7 million/Week 5
2.) violent night Uni 3,723 theaters (+41), Fri. $2.4M (-50%) 3 days $8M (-40%), Overall $26.4M/Week 2
3.) strange world Dis 3,560 (-614) theaters, Fri $787,000 (-28%) 3 days $3.6M (-29%)Total $30.4M /Week 3
4.) The menu Wed 2,710 (-100) theaters Fri $825,000 (-21%) 3 days $2.8M (-18%) Together $29.1M/Week 4
5.) Dedication Sony 3,458 theaters (+53) Fri $600,000 3 days $1.9M (-28%) Together $16.8M/Week 3